5,000 games
Compare EV with the results range and probability of finishing at a loss. EV includes every multiplier in the model, including jackpots that may not appear in the displayed paths.
Free calculator
Spin & Go Variance Calculator
For Spin & Go, Spins and Expresso jackpot sit & gos: simulate your swings from chipEV, multipliers and volume.
Method checked · 7 September 2026
Your results
Expected profit+2,080 $
Volume : 5,000
Chance of finishing down…
Estimated
95% outcome range…
95% range
See the range of possible outcomes
The shaded range applies at each point, not to an entire path. The EV line is an average, not a promised result.
EV95% range
Simulating…
$ · Simulation seed 42 · Monte Carlo estimate; small differences between seeds are normal.
Variance is out of your hands. Your win rate is not.
No bankroll rule changes this curve: only your edge does. Fixing one recurring leak shifts the whole band upward.
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Explore the details
- Standard deviation (total)
- 4,662 $
- Expected ROI
- 4.16 %
- Chance of winning one game
- 37.33 %
- Rake implied by this table
- 7 %
Drawdown of one sample path
Distance from the previous observed peak. Intermediate lows between plotted points can be missed.
Payout model
| Rank / outcome | Prize | Model probability |
|---|---|---|
| ×2 | 20 $ | 28 % |
| ×3 | 30 $ | 5.6 % |
| ×5 | 50 $ | 2.9867 % |
| ×10 | 100 $ | 0.56 % |
| ×25 | 250 $ | 0.1493 % |
| ×100 | 1,000 $ | 0.0336 % |
| ×1000 | 10,000 $ | 0.0037 % |
| — | 0 $ | 62.6667 % |
How to use this Spin & Go variance calculator
1. Enter the number of games, your chipEV per game and the buy-in. 2. Check the starting stack and, if needed, edit the multiplier table to match your format. 3. Press Calculate to see your expected profit, the range of results and the drawdown of one sample path.
From chipEV to ROI: what +60 chipEV really means
With a 500-chip starting stack, +60 chipEV per game gives a 37.3% win rate in a 3-max winner-takes-all game. With the default multiplier table (7% implied rake), that is an ROI of about 4.2%. Over 5,000 games at $10, the simulation still gives about a 38% chance of being down.
Model assumptions
How to read this simulation
Illustrative three-player, winner-takes-all format. The default multiplier table implies 7% rake; it is not a verified room offer. ChipEV is converted to a win probability under a chip-conservation assumption. Formats that pay several places require a different model. Rake is already represented by the payout distribution and is not subtracted again.
Discrete outcome ranges and loss probabilities are estimates from 2,048 simulations. Rare jackpots can make these estimates unstable. EV and standard deviation are calculated analytically from the full distribution.
Understand bankroll management
Guided reading
Compare two Spin volumes
ChipEV and multipliers play different roles in winnings. These illustrative scenarios use the same distribution to isolate volume. Enter each scenario, click “Calculate”, then note the three results above the chart.
Shared assumptions: chipEV of 60 chips per game, $10 buy-in, starting stack of 500 chips and the default multiplier table.
10,000 games
Double only the number of games. Expected profit doubles; total standard deviation grows more slowly. The simulated range can remain uneven because of rare multipliers: greater volume does not guarantee hitting a jackpot.
Then compare two chipEV assumptions
Return to 5,000 games and change only chipEV from 60 to 40 chips. Keep the starting stack and multipliers unchanged to see the effect of this assumption alone. Study a different distribution in a separate comparison: probabilities and payouts must match the format you want to model.
The probability of finishing at a loss refers to the result at the end of your chosen volume. To understand drops along the way, show the paths and open the drawdown details: a drawdown is a fall from a previous peak.
Spin & Go variance calculator: FAQ
Why is Spin & Go variance so high?
Rare jackpot multipliers hold a large share of the EV, and most samples never hit them.
What is chipEV and how does it convert to ROI?
ChipEV is your average chip gain per game. The calculator converts it into a win probability, then applies the multiplier table.
Can I use my own multiplier table?
Yes. Open “Edit multiplier probabilities” and enter the published multipliers and probabilities of the format you play.
Is rake included?
Yes. It is implied by the multiplier table and not subtracted a second time.
How many games do I need to know if I'm a winning player?
Under the default assumptions, roughly 96,000 games to be 95% confident of a positive edge.
Does it work for formats that pay several places?
No. The model assumes 3 players and winner-takes-all.
Turn a simulation into a study routine
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Use your results to choose the next step
Measure your play, review your decisions and build a study routine.
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