1,000 tournaments
Read expected profit alongside the probability of finishing at a loss. A positive average can coexist with losing series. Also look at the range’s shape: rare large wins can stretch its upper end.
Free calculator
MTT Variance Calculator for Poker Tournaments
Simulate tournament variance, visualize potential outcomes, and understand your true edge.
Method checked · 7 September 2026
Your results
Expected profit+1,000 $
Volume : 1,000
Chance of finishing down…
Estimated
95% outcome range…
95% range
See the range of possible outcomes
The shaded range applies at each point, not to an entire path. The EV line is an average, not a promised result.
EV95% range
Simulating…
$ · Simulation seed 42 · Monte Carlo estimate; small differences between seeds are normal.
Variance is out of your hands. Your win rate is not.
No bankroll rule changes this curve: only your edge does. Fixing one recurring leak shifts the whole band upward.
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Explore the details
- Standard deviation (total)
- 2,065 $
- Expected ROI
- 10 %
Drawdown of one sample path
Distance from the previous observed peak. Intermediate lows between plotted points can be missed.
Payout model
| Rank / outcome | Prize | Model probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1,098.89 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 2 | 512.65 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 3 | 328.19 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 4 | 239.16 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 5 | 187.11 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 6 | 153.1 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 7 | 129.22 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 8 | 111.57 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 9 | 98.01 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 10 | 87.29 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 11 | 78.6 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 12 | 71.43 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 13 | 65.41 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 14 | 60.29 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 15 | 55.88 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 16 | 52.05 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 17 | 48.69 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 18 | 45.73 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 19 | 43.08 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 20 | 40.72 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 21 | 38.59 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 22 | 36.67 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 23 | 34.92 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 24 | 33.32 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 25 | 31.86 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 26 | 30.51 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 27 | 29.27 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 28 | 28.12 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 29 | 27.06 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 30 | 26.07 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 31 | 25.15 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 32 | 24.28 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 33 | 23.47 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 34 | 22.72 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 35 | 22 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 36 | 21.33 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 37 | 20.7 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 38 | 20.1 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 39 | 19.53 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 40 | 19 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 41 | 18.49 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 42 | 18 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 43 | 17.54 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 44 | 17.11 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 45 | 16.69 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 46 | 16.29 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 47 | 15.91 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 48 | 15.54 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 49 | 15.2 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 50 | 14.86 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 51 | 14.54 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 52 | 14.23 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 53 | 13.94 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 54 | 13.66 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 55 | 13.38 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 56 | 13.12 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 57 | 12.87 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 58 | 12.62 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 59 | 12.39 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 60 | 12.16 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 61 | 11.94 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 62 | 11.73 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 63 | 11.53 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 64 | 11.33 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 65 | 11.14 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 66 | 10.95 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 67 | 10.77 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 68 | 10.6 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 69 | 10.43 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 70 | 10.26 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 71 | 10.11 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 72 | 9.95 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 73 | 9.8 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 74 | 9.66 $ | 0.2444 % |
| 75 | 9.51 $ | 0.2444 % |
| — | 0 $ | 81.6667 % |
How to use this MTT variance calculator
1. Enter how many tournaments you plan to play, the average field size and the buy-in. 2. Enter a cautious ROI and the rake. 3. Press Calculate to see your expected profit, the 95% range of results and the chance of finishing the sample below zero.
How many tournaments until your ROI means something?
In a 500-player field with a 10% ROI, one tournament has a standard deviation of about 6.5 buy-ins. You need roughly 16,000 tournaments to be 95% confident that this ROI is positive. After 1,000 tournaments, the simulation still gives about a 1 in 3 chance of being down (95% range: −$2,390 to +$5,493 for $10 buy-ins).
Model assumptions
How to read this simulation
Illustrative regular tournament with 15% of the field paid. Prizes decrease by rank and sum to the full pool after rake. Paid-place probabilities are scaled to match your ROI; this is one possible model, not a prediction of your actual finishes. Bounties, re-entries and changing fields are not modeled.
Discrete outcome ranges and loss probabilities are estimates from 2,048 simulations. Rare jackpots can make these estimates unstable. EV and standard deviation are calculated analytically from the full distribution.
Understand bankroll management
Guided reading
Compare two tournament volumes
In MTTs, large payouts strongly influence a series. These illustrative examples help you understand that effect. Enter each scenario, click “Calculate”, then note the three results above the chart.
Shared assumptions: 500 players, total buy-in of $10, expected ROI of 10% and rake of 10%.
2,000 tournaments
Double only the number of tournaments. EV doubles while total standard deviation grows more slowly. Compare the displayed bounds and loss probability: volume changes the results distribution without guaranteeing a winning series.
Then try a more cautious ROI
Return to 1,000 tournaments and change only ROI from 10% to 5%. Keep the field size, buy-in and rake unchanged to isolate that assumption. Historical ROI helps build a scenario, but remains sensitive to big finishes and the level of the tournaments you play.
The probability of finishing at a loss refers to the result at the end of your chosen volume. To understand drops along the way, show the paths and open the drawdown details: a drawdown is a fall from a previous peak.
MTT variance calculator: FAQ
Why is tournament variance higher than cash game variance?
Most of your profit comes from rare deep runs, so results are heavily skewed and long losing stretches are normal.
Does field size affect MTT variance?
Yes. Larger fields spread the prize pool over rarer finishes, which increases variance at the same ROI.
What ROI should I enter?
Use a cautious estimate, not your best year. A historical ROI over a few hundred tournaments is mostly noise.
How many buy-ins do I need for MTTs?
It depends on field size and ROI. Compare several scenarios here, then read our bankroll guide for practical thresholds.
Are bounties, re-entries and satellites included?
No. The model uses a standard payout structure with 15% of the field paid. PKO formats need a different model.
Is this a prediction of my results?
No. It is an illustrative model scaled to the ROI you enter.
Turn a simulation into a study routine
Measure your play, review your decisions and build a study routine.
Use your results to choose the next step
Measure your play, review your decisions and build a study routine.
01
GTO Wizard
Understand why a range bets, find better bluffs and work on recurring spots: GTO Wizard connects solution study with practice. Explore a spot in your browser, then practise your decisions in the Trainer.
02
PokerSnowie
PokerSnowie makes studying poker inviting through play. Face its AI, review your decisions and identify habits that cause problems. A practical way to deepen your postflop understanding, hand by hand.
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