MTT Variance Calculator

Simulate tournament variance, visualize potential outcomes, and understand your true edge.

Inputs

How many tournaments you want to simulate

Average number of players per tournament

Your average tournament entry fee

Your estimated return on investment (10% = good reg, 20% = crusher)

Payout Distribution

Based on a 500-player tournament structure

PlacePayoutProbabilityExpected Value
1st$7200.20%+$1
2nd$4320.20%+$1
3rd$3240.20%+$1
4th$2520.20%+$0
5th$2020.20%+$0
6th$1580.20%+$0
7th$1300.20%+$0
8th$1080.20%+$0
9th$860.20%+$0
10th-18th$701.80%+$1
19th-27th$461.80%+$1
Other ITM$229.60%+$1
Bust$085.00%-$9

Variance in Numbers

Detailed statistics for 1000 tournaments

Expected Profit$1,000
Bankroll Needed (< 5% RoR)$3,349(335 BI)
Probability of Loss25.18%
Probability of Profit74.82%
Expected ITM %16.50%
Expected Win %0.22%
Standard Deviation / Tournament$47
Standard Deviation (Total)$1,495
70% Confidence Interval-$555 – $2,555
95% Confidence Interval-$1,931 – $3,931
Best Case (95%)$3,931
Worst Case (95%)-$1,931

ROI Probability Distribution

Likelihood of achieving different ROI levels after 1000 tournaments

Break-even or better
74.82%
ROI > 10%
50.00%
ROI > 20%
25.18%
ROI < -10%
9.05%
ROI < -20%
2.24%

Simulated Sample Bankrolls

20 possible outcomes with confidence intervals

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Key Takeaways

  • •A 10% ROI player can easily lose money over 1000 tournaments due to variance
  • •Final table finishes (especially wins) account for most of your long-term profit
  • •Track at least 1000-2000 tournaments before drawing conclusions about your true ROI
  • •Bankroll management is crucial - never play tournaments you can't afford to lose
  • •Mental game is essential - downswings in MTTs can last months