Cash Game Variance Calculator

Visualize expected swings based on your winrate, standard deviation and volume.

Inputs

EV (winrate)	5.00 bb/100
Standard deviation	80.00 bb/100
Hands	100,000
Expected winnings	5000 bb 5.00 bb/100
Standard deviation after 100000 hands	2530 bb 2.53 bb/100
70% confidence interval	2369 bb – 7631 bb 2.37 bb/100 – 7.63 bb/100
95% confidence interval	42 bb – 9958 bb 0.04 bb/100 – 9.96 bb/100
Probability of being down after 100000 hands	2.4%
Minimum bankroll for < 5% risk of ruin	1917 bb 19.2 buy-ins

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20 random samples, EV line and 70% / 95% confidence intervals. Best and worst runs are highlighted.

One long run with current parameters plus its drawdown (distance from previous peak).

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