Cash Game Variance Calculator

Visualize expected swings based on your winrate, standard deviation and volume.

Inputs

Key results

EV (winrate)5.00 bb/100
Standard deviation80.00 bb/100
Hands100,000
Expected winnings
5000 bb
5.00 bb/100
Standard deviation after 100000 hands
2530 bb
2.53 bb/100
70% confidence interval
2369 bb – 7631 bb
2.37 bb/100 – 7.63 bb/100
95% confidence interval
42 bb – 9958 bb
0.04 bb/100 – 9.96 bb/100
Probability of being down after 100000 hands2.4%
Minimum bankroll for < 5% risk of ruin
1917 bb
19.2 buy-ins

Simulated samples and confidence bands

20 random samples, EV line and 70% / 95% confidence intervals. Best and worst runs are highlighted.

Sample run and downswings

One long run with current parameters plus its drawdown (distance from previous peak).

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