100,000 hands
Find the expected profit, then the two bounds of the 95% range. Their distance from the EV line shows the spread of possible results for this volume and these assumptions.
Free calculator
Poker Variance Calculator for Cash Games
See how much of your cash game results comes from variance: enter your winrate, standard deviation and volume.
Method checked · 7 September 2026
Your results
Expected profit+5,000 bb
Volume : 100,000
Chance of finishing down2.4 %
Model probability
95% outcome range42 bb → 9,958 bb
95% range
See the range of possible outcomes
The shaded range applies at each point, not to an entire path. The EV line is an average, not a promised result.
EV95% range
Simulating…
bb · Simulation seed 42
Variance is out of your hands. Your win rate is not.
No bankroll rule changes this curve: only your edge does. Fixing one recurring leak shifts the whole band upward.
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Explore the details
- Standard deviation (total)
- 2,530 bb
- Theoretical capital · 5% ruin risk
- 1,917 bb
Brownian approximation over an infinite horizon, with a positive known winrate, fixed stakes and no withdrawals. Not a personal bankroll recommendation. One buy-in = 100 bb.
Drawdown of one sample path
Distance from the previous observed peak. Intermediate lows between plotted points can be missed.
How to use this poker variance calculator
1. Enter the winrate you assume, in bb/100 after rake. 2. Enter your standard deviation from PokerTracker 4 or Hand2Note (in bb/100). 3. Choose the number of hands and press Calculate. The chart shows your expected profit and the 95% range of plausible results; tick “Show sample paths” to see how individual careers can look.
How many hands until you know your real winrate?
With a standard deviation of 80 bb/100, your observed winrate after 100,000 hands is still only accurate to about ±5 bb/100 (95% confidence). Narrowing that to ±2 bb/100 takes roughly 615,000 hands. Use your tracker’s standard deviation and treat a short sample as a hypothesis, not a verdict.
Model assumptions
How to read this simulation
This normal model assumes a constant true winrate after rake, independent results and a constant standard deviation. Your observed winrate is an estimate, not a known true winrate. The outcome range does not estimate uncertainty in your true winrate.
Understand bankroll management
Guided reading
Compare two cash game volumes
These illustrative scenarios separate expected profit from the size of possible deviations. Enter each scenario, click “Calculate”, then note the three results above the chart.
Shared assumptions: winrate of 5 bb/100 after rake and standard deviation of 80 bb/100.
200,000 hands
Double only the number of hands. Expected profit doubles; total standard deviation grows more slowly. Deviations in big blinds can therefore increase while becoming smaller relative to expected profit.
What if your winrate were lower?
Return to 100,000 hands and change only the winrate from 5 to 2 bb/100. Compare the probability of finishing at a loss and the lower bound: this shows the effect of a more cautious skill assumption. The calculator uses the winrate you enter; estimating your skill requires studying your hands and results.
The probability of finishing at a loss refers to the result at the end of your chosen volume. To understand drops along the way, show the paths and open the drawdown details: a drawdown is a fall from a previous peak.
Poker variance calculator: FAQ
What is variance in poker?
The gap between your actual results and your expected results over a given sample. It is driven by card distribution, not by decision quality, which is why a winning player can lose over thousands of hands.
What standard deviation should I use?
Use the value from your tracker (PokerTracker 4, Hand2Note). As a rough guide, full-ring NLHE is often around 60–80 bb/100, 6-max 80–100 bb/100, and PLO is much higher.
Can a winning player be down after 100,000 hands?
Yes. At 5 bb/100 and 80 bb/100 standard deviation, the model gives a 2.4% chance of being below zero after 100,000 hands, 8.1% after 50,000 hands, and 21.5% at 2 bb/100.
How big a bankroll do I need for cash games?
In this model, a 5 bb/100 winner needs about 1,900 bb (19 buy-ins) for a 5% theoretical risk of ruin, and a 2 bb/100 winner about 4,800 bb. Real bankroll rules should be more cautious: see our bankroll guide.
Does rake change my variance?
Rake mostly lowers your winrate after rake. The swings stay similar, so the same variance weighs more heavily and you need more hands to confirm an edge.
Does this calculator predict my results?
No. It shows the plausible range for a winrate you assume. Estimating your real winrate requires reviewing your hands and your sample.
Turn a simulation into a study routine
First check winrate and standard deviation in your tracker. The simulation describes variance under your assumptions; it does not diagnose a technical leak.
Use your results to choose the next step
Measure your play, review your decisions and build a study routine.
01
GTO Wizard
Understand why a range bets, find better bluffs and work on recurring spots: GTO Wizard connects solution study with practice. Explore a spot in your browser, then practise your decisions in the Trainer.
02
PokerSnowie
PokerSnowie makes studying poker inviting through play. Face its AI, review your decisions and identify habits that cause problems. A practical way to deepen your postflop understanding, hand by hand.
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