ICM calculator: prize equity and bubble factor
Enter the chip stacks and the prizes still to be paid. The calculator converts chips into prize money with the Independent Chip Model, then shows how much more you risk than you win in an all-in against each opponent.
Calculated in your browser with the Malmuth-Harville model. Nothing is sent to a server.
Prize equity
| Player | Chips | Chip share | ICM equity | Share of prizes | Equity / chips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 (you) | 4,000 | 40.0% | 33.60 | 33.6% | 0.84 |
| P2 | 3,000 | 30.0% | 29.49 | 29.5% | 0.98 |
| P3 | 2,000 | 20.0% | 23.59 | 23.6% | 1.18 |
| P4 | 1,000 | 10.0% | 13.32 | 13.3% | 1.33 |
Above 1, a stack is worth more than its share of the chips; below 1, less. The chip leader is always below 1. Prize pool entered: 100.00
Bubble factors and risk premium
Your seat against each opponent, for an all-in for the effective stack. 1.00 means chips lost and chips won are worth the same.
| Against | Bubble factor | Equity needed to call | Risk premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| P2 · 3,000 | 1.71 | 63.1% | +13.1 pts |
| P3 · 2,000 | 1.31 | 56.7% | +6.7 pts |
| P4 · 1,000 | 1.13 | 52.9% | +2.9 pts |
Equity needed to call an all-in with no dead money in the pot: bubble factor / (1 + bubble factor), against 50% in chip EV. The risk premium is the difference. Blinds and antes in the pot lower both figures.
All bubble factors
Row: the player who risks the chips. Column: the opponent.
| P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | – | 1.71 | 1.31 | 1.13 |
| P2 | 2.69 | – | 1.48 | 1.16 |
| P3 | 2.35 | 2.17 | – | 1.18 |
| P4 | 1.57 | 1.48 | 1.30 | – |
You know what your stack is worth. Now see how to play it.
ICM equity tells you the price of a mistake, not which hands to shove or call. GTO Wizard Premium has the standard ICM preflop solutions; Ultra solves your own final table with your stacks and payouts.
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How the ICM calculation works
The Independent Chip Model, in the Malmuth-Harville form used here, assumes that a player’s chance of winning the tournament equals their share of the chips. Second place is drawn the same way among the players left, and so on down the paid places. Your ICM equity is the sum of each prize times your chance of finishing in that place.
Because the first prize is capped and every player still in collects at least the last paid prize, chips do not convert to money in a straight line: doubling your stack never doubles your equity. That is where the bubble factor comes from.
The model ignores skill, seat, the blind level and future hands. It is the standard reference for short-stack decisions, and the reason why solver ranges at a final table are tighter than chip-EV push/fold charts.
ICM calculator FAQ
What is ICM in poker?
ICM, the Independent Chip Model, converts tournament chips into prize money. It estimates each player’s chance of finishing in each paid place from the chip stacks, then multiplies by the prizes. It is the reason tournament decisions differ from cash games near the money.
What is the Malmuth-Harville model?
It is the usual way to compute ICM: the chance of finishing first equals your share of the chips, then each next place is drawn the same way among the players left. This calculator computes it exactly for up to 10 players.
What is a bubble factor?
The bubble factor compares what you lose in prize equity when you lose an all-in with what you gain when you win it. A bubble factor of 1.5 means a loss costs 1.5 times what a win pays, so you need more equity to call.
What is the risk premium?
The extra equity you need to call an all-in under ICM compared with chip EV. With a bubble factor of 1.5 and no dead money, you need 60% instead of 50%: a risk premium of 10 points.
Should I enter the payouts in dollars or in percent?
Either: enter the prizes still to be paid, in any unit. Equities come out in the same unit, and the share of the prize pool is the same in both cases.
Is ICM accurate at the start of a tournament?
No. Far from the money, ICM underestimates big stacks because it ignores skill and future hands. It is most useful near the bubble, in satellites and at final tables.